Alaska has returned to a period of slow-but-steady population growth as births outpace deaths – making up for migration out of the state.
That’s according to this month’s economic trends report from the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development. The report found that the statewide population has been trending higher since 2020, and that the increase appears to have accelerated in 2024.
“Our net migration losses haven’t been that big, and we’ve been able to make up for net migration losses with what we refer to as natural increase, which is just births outnumbering deaths,” said David Howell, the state demographer.
The state’s population surpassed 740,000 people for the first time this decade in 2024. That’s nearly 8,000 more people than lived in Alaska in 2020, according to the report. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, the state saw a 0.3% population increase. That’s up slightly from the average increase per year since 2020: 0.25%.
Howell attributed the bulk of that growth to one area.
“All the growth since 2020 has pretty much been on that Rail Belt running from Kenai up through Fairbanks, with the Mat-Su kind of being our one standout area that’s grown consistently for decades now,” he said.
That comes in sharp contrast to other regions. The population of every borough in Southeast, for instance, has declined since 2020. Skagway specifically has seen its population drop by an average of over 2% per year – the largest decrease regionwide.
Howell said Skagway has yet to recover from the pandemic, which hit the borough’s tourism-dependent economy especially hard. But the general decline in Southeast, he said, is largely due to its aging population.
“There’s not as many people at high fertility ages, and you have more people at these ages where mortality is higher,” Howell said, noting that in Skagway deaths now outnumber births.
Meanwhile in Haines, which is Alaska’s oldest borough with a median age of 50, the population has dropped between 1% and 2% per year on average, according to the report. Local officials say it’s becoming harder and harder to attract younger families to the area due to insufficient housing and childcare.
Haines Mayor Tom Morphet raised the issue during a recent meeting of the Haines Planning Commission. The commission has been working on an ordinance that would aim to create more housing in town by making it easier for homeowners to build auxiliary dwelling units on their properties.
“The housing crisis in this town is extreme,” Morphet said during the meeting. “We cannot keep teachers, we cannot attract new employees.”
It’s a different story entirely in Western Alaska, which has also seen its population decline over the same time period – but for a different reason.
“Out there, the population is very young. But what you see is a lot of people moving for work or something like that. So they’re moving more to population hubs or out of the state,” Howell said. “So, very different reasoning than Southeast.”
