Snow is melting early across much of Alaska this year, threatening snow removal companies in Anchorage and even moving the Iditarod starting line hundreds of miles north. It could also mean a big wildfire season for parts of the state.
University of Alaska Fairbanks researchers analyzed almost a century of Alaska fire weather data and found that many of Alaska’s most extreme wildfire seasons started with an early snowoff — the last day of the year when snow is visible in a given place.
Peter Bieniek, a UAF climate scientist who co-authored the study, said his research group found that snow is melting much earlier than in the past, due to human-caused climate change.
“There's a definite trend toward earlier snowoff in Alaska,” he said. “That's kind of throughout the state. On top of that, we've had, in the last few decades, more frequent extreme fire years. Over a million acres is kinda how we define that.”
Bieniek said the warm conditions that cause the snow to melt also accelerate hot, dry fire weather in the summer months.
“So, what happens during an early snowoff year? Typically, it means you have a warm spring,” he said. “When you have a lot of fire, you also typically have warmer Junes and Julys that follow. Those warm conditions that started and resulted in the earlier snowoff are persisting into the fire season.”
Heidi Strader, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service and one of the study’s co-authors, said it’s too early to get a clear picture of what peak fire season will look like. But the study gives fire management agencies like the National Parks Service and the Bureau of Land Management a decent idea of how to allocate resources in the spring.
“This year is unique, as all years are,” she said. “But the southern part of the state — around much of Southcentral and parts of Southwest, over into Bristol Bay — has a lot of areas that are snow-free. And that's not normal. Meanwhile, up in the Interior here, we actually have a pretty decent snowpack going.”
That’s all to say that Alaska could see an early spring this year, with fire starting earlier than normal in southern Alaska. But the historically fire-prone area just south of the Brooks Range is fairly safe for now.
Fire service managers say to get ready now
Strader said it’s possible that those conditions could change. Southcentral could still get a huge snow dump in March. But state and federal wildfire managers are still asking Alaskans to get ready.
Beth Ipsen is a spokesperson for the Bureau of Land Management Fire Service in Alaska, which coordinates wildfire responses. She said, even though there’s some snow on the ground, this is a good time for the public to help mitigate fire risk.
“Public and firefighter safety is our number one priority, and the public can help us out with that by being prepared,” she said. “Prepare the property, prepare themselves in case they need to evacuate, and just be very aware of what's going on. Basically, just: help us help you.”
Ipsen recommends that Alaskans in fire-prone areas stock up on emergency supplies, consider installing metal roofs, and prune trees — especially black spruce — within about 10 feet of their homes.
And, maybe, most importantly, she said folks in rural areas should get to know their neighbors. In an emergency, they’re the first people they’ll have to rely on — especially when help is hours away.
You can find more tips on staying safe in wildfire season on the Alaska Fire Service website.
