Alaska’s 2026 governor’s race is becoming a very lopsided affair. While a dozen or so Republicans are either running or believed to be preparing a run, a big question hangs over potential Democratic hopefuls: What will Mary Peltola do?
Nobody has reliable intel, not even Alaska pollster Ivan Moore.
“Well, hang on. Let’s do this: I have three Alaskan buddies here in the car,” he said Monday, when he happened to be driving through western Canada.
He put his phone on mute to do some quick research.
“We had one yes and two nos to the question, ‘Is Mary Peltola going to run for governor?’” he said.
Moore himself is in the yes-she-will camp, making it 50-50 odds in one very unscientific sample.
What does former Alaska congresswoman Mary Peltola say about her plans? She declined to comment for this story. But she attended fundraisers this summer, met with important political players and spoke at the Alaska Democratic Party’s annual picnic, fueling much speculation and inquiry.
Peltola is the only Democrat to win statewide in years. She lost her seat last year to Republican Nick Begich. But Moore said, — based on his real polling, beyond the occupants of his car —that she remains popular. If she enters, Moore said she’d do well in the open primary and would be “overwhelmingly likely” to win one of the four spots on the ranked choice general election ballot in November 2026.
“So it's kind of an awkward situation: Do you wait for Mary or do you get in?” Moore said, channeling the dilemma other Democratic hopefuls are in. “And if you get in, do you say that you'll get out if she gets in? Because no one wants to just be in a race to lose it. No one wants to take money away from Mary.”
As he sees it, Alaska Democrats have an innate culture of not competing against each other, because they can’t afford to. There are fewer of them.
The only Democrat to enter the governor’s race so far is former state senator Tom Begich. He pledged to step aside if Peltola runs.
“And I'm hopeful that she will be in a statewide race, too, and that that statewide race will be for the U.S. Senate,” said Begich, who is the uncle of the current Alaska congressman.
Moore polled on the possibility that Peltola might challenge U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan. He found that more respondents had a positive view of Peltola but, in a head-to-head match, Moore’s poll suggests Sen. Sullivan would win.
Moore described those two findings as “very unusual” and attributes it to the incumbent advantage.
Axios and other news sites reported last month that Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer is recruiting Peltola to run against Sullivan. That could mean another multi-million contest, with national Republicans spending a ton of money in Alaska to defend what’s otherwise a safe seat for them. The National Republican Senatorial Committee says it’s not worried.
"Chuck Schumer's best options in red-state Senate races are losers like Mary Peltola,” a spokesman told Axios.
Anchorage political consultant Jim Lottsfeldt, who generally helps Democrats and moderate Republicans, ardently hopes Peltola enters the governor’s race.
“I think she will just sail far and above everybody else, based on her popularity, her accomplishments, her name ID,” he said. “And the Republicans will be busy in a knife fight amongst the 47 of them to try to get the right to challenge her. It's sort of a perfect race for her.”
Peltola could spend a year raising money and consolidating support across the left and middle, he said.
“Whereas, with that crowded Republican primary, everybody on that side has to figure out how to get to the second-, third- and fourth-places,” Lottsfeldt said. “And they're going to be pursuing their niche.”
He figures they’ll take far-right positions to stake out specific GOP lanes to do well in the primary, and then have to walk it back by November.
Alaska AFL-CIO President Joelle Hall said it may feel like potential Democratic candidates are hanging back and waiting for Peltola, but it’s still early. The candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 1, 2026.
“She's the most electable Democrat in the entire field, and so, yeah, it is natural for everybody to want to know what she's thinking,” Hall said.
While Peltola lost in 2024, that was a presidential election year. Non-presidential years have lower turnout and Hall said the Alaska voters who stay home skew conservative.
Hall said she doesn’t care which race Peltola files for — governor or U.S. senator — as long as she runs.
“And then when she makes her choice,” Hall said, “we will organize ourselves to try to make the most out of the choice that she makes.”
