On Friday, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the race for Alaska’s U.S. House seat after finishing third in early results for the statewide primary election.
Though a surprise to some observers, her action is part of a larger trend this year: In some races with multiple Republicans, candidates are withdrawing in order to consolidate support behind a single Republican.
It’s a response to the party’s experience two years ago, strategists and candidates say.
In 2022, Democratic U.S. House candidate Mary Peltola defeated Republicans Nick Begich and Sarah Palin. Part of that defeat was due to the fact that many Begich voters either failed to rank anyone second or chose Peltola after Begich was eliminated.
Republicans won several ranked choice legislative elections by narrow margins, but in those races, many Republican voters declined to rank a second Republican, leading to significant numbers of “exhausted” ballots that didn’t contribute to the final margin.
The Republican Party attempted to convince voters to “Rank the Red” in a pre-election campaign, but in the two years since the last election, that approach has been discarded by a significant number of Republicans.
They’re now trying to recreate the state’s old primary elections system — in which only one candidate from a particular party advances to the general election — through voluntary withdrawals.
That strategy is showing up in races where multiple conservative Republicans are running alongside a single Democrat or moderate Republican.
The same day that Dahlstrom withdrew, incumbent Rep. Tom McKay, R-Anchorage, announced that he would be withdrawing from the election for an Anchorage state Senate seat despite finishing second.
McKay and former Republican state Rep. Liz Vazquez are each challenging Sen. Matt Claman, D-Anchorage.
“Me and Liz aren’t that far apart, and I’m a believer — especially after my 2022 race, that having two Republicans in there is not helpful,” McKay said. “And I think Liz really wanted to stay in the race, so I decided I’ll drop out, and I’m going to look for other opportunities.”
Two years ago, McKay trailed Democratic candidate Denny Wells among voters’ first preferences but won after the ranked choice tabulation sent a fellow Republican’s second-choice votes his way.
That fellow Republican, David Eibeck, got 1,039 votes, and McKay was listed as a second choice on 644 of those ballots. Wells was the second choice for 92 voters. On 303 ballots — almost a third of Eibeck’s voters — there was no second choice, and the ballots were exhausted, not counting for either remaining candidate.
“That tells me right there that you can’t force people to do this ranking business. Some of them, they’re just not going to do it,” McKay said.
He won his race, but he thinks it was closer than it should have been. Under Alaska’s old elections system, only one Republican and one Democrat would have advanced from the primary to the general election, and McKay thinks those Eibeck voters would have gone for him.
This year, his chief of staff, Trevor Jepsen, encouraged candidates to sign pre-election pledges saying that they would drop out if they weren’t the top Republican in the primary.
“The data doesn’t lie; due to exhausted ballots, ‘Rank the Red’ is a losing strategy in tight races,” Jepsen said. “‘One Race, One Republican’ should be the strategy, and it’s good to see our Republican candidates understanding that.”
More withdrawals are expected ahead of the Sept. 2 deadline, but some candidates aren’t waiting.
In the race for Eagle River’s state Senate seat, former Republican Rep. Sharon Jackson has withdrawn and endorsed Jared Goecker, the leading conservative Republican challenger to incumbent moderate Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick.
Jackson is running fifth, but her withdrawal means that if another trailing candidate withdraws, there will be no replacement.
In House District 36, which covers much of Interior Alaska, Republican Cole Snodgress is running third in a six-person race, enough to advance to the general election. But because he’s behind fellow Republican Rebecca Schwanke, he’s withdrawing from the contest.
“Instead of trying to stay in and split up the vote going into the general election, I made that commitment up front with District 36,” he said by phone on Monday. “I said, ‘Hey, if I don’t take first, I’m going to get out of the way and get behind one candidate going into the general election.’”
He’s already sent his withdrawal paperwork into the Division of Elections, he said.
“We both had our fair shot at it, and this is the way that people spoke on it, and we’re just going back to that traditional primary process that we had, except you have to do it through self governance,” Snodgress said.
It isn’t yet clear whether Snodgress’ move will accomplish what he wants. Republican Dana Mock is running fifth in the balloting and didn’t immediately answer a phone call about his intentions.
If Mock doesn’t withdraw, he’ll slide into fourth, leaving the ballot full for the general election.
Rep. Jesse Sumner, R-Wasilla, also announced his withdrawal from the general election last week, but for family reasons rather than strategy.
Sumner supports the current elections system and said it’s not beneficial to have it become a partisan issue.
He thinks it’s a mistake for Republicans to rely on strategic withdrawals ahead of the general election.
“People see that people don’t rank, but that doesn’t mean that they would have voted for the other candidate, or even showed up to vote, or voted down ballot if the other candidate was there,” he said. “Oftentimes, they might just not like that other person, you know?”
