An eruption at Mount Spurr, the closest volcano to Alaska’s population centers, is now less likely, researchers said Thursday.
Last month, the Alaska Volcano Observatory warned Alaskans that observations indicated an eruption at Spurr was more likely than not. The volcano, which sits about 80 miles west of Anchorage, has only erupted twice in recorded history, once in 1953 and again in 1992.
More recently, though, the researchers are seeing fewer indications that Spurr will erupt, but they say it’s still possible.
“Overall, the likelihood of eruption has decreased from a month ago,” said Matt Haney, the observatory’s head scientist. “However, the earthquake activity, especially deep beneath the volcano, has not decreased, so the volcano is still at an unrest level that's higher than background.”
But there have been fewer shallow earthquakes at Spurr, and the rate at which the volcano is inflating has slowed, Haney said.
Another indicator of a possible eruption – volcanic gas emissions – has been difficult to measure, because recent poor weather had prevented the researchers from flying over the volcano to take measurements, he said.
“We've been unable to keep up our pace of volcanic gas emission measurement flights.” Haney said. “And we're looking now at any window that we can get out there.”
READ MORE: What to know about Mount Spurr’s likely eruption
People should still work to prepare themselves for an eruption, Haney said, adding that it could still happen within weeks or months.
At this point, the researchers are trying to find similarities between the current unrest and the unrest that occurred in 1992 and between 2004 and 2006, he said.
“The current unrest, it has aspects of 2004, it has aspects of 1992, so we're constantly reassessing,” he said. “Is this starting to look more like 2004, which was a failed eruption, or are we getting the signals that it's looking more like the, you know, detailed observations that were made prior to the 1992 eruption?”
Also Thursday, the state Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management requested that the public work to battle disinformation about Spurr by consulting with official sources, like the state and the volcano observatory. Officials added that tourism, travel and recreation are currently unaffected by Spurr.
The observatory also recently posted a livestream where viewers can monitor Spurr themselves.
