How Alaska legislative races are shaping up

Results are rolling in late Tuesday for the Alaska legislative races.

At stake: control of the House and Senate, responsible for setting state policy on everything from education to energy to the Permanent Fund and more.

So far, with 93% of precincts reporting, many coalition-minded Senate candidates are leading, and control of the state House is up in the air. 

Absentee ballots will continue to be counted as they arrive for up to 15 days after the election. And in any race where no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, ranked choice tabulation will determine the winner on Nov. 20.

That said, here are some more takeaways from early results:

Bipartisan coalition members lead in many races for Alaska Senate 

Many conservative Republicans hoped to break the 17-member bipartisan majority that controls the state Senate. The caucus is made up of nine Democrats and eight Republicans, but some conservative Senate candidates have objected to what they see as a betrayal by coalition members. 

But even before results emerged, that appeared to be an uphill battle given the seats in play this year. 

So far, members of the Senate’s bipartisan coalition are leading in some key races.

On the Kenai Peninsula, incumbent Republican Sen. Jesse Bjorkman leads his conservative challenger, Rep. Ben Carpenter. Bjorkman far outraised Carpenter in the race. During the last session, Bjorkman supported bills that would boost public school funding and return state employees to a pension system. Carpenter opposed both bills.

In Chugiak-Eagle River, conservative Republican Jared Goecker is trailing incumbent Sen. Kelly Merrick, also a Republican. Goecker made Merrick’s choice to caucus with a bipartisan group a focus of his campaign.

In Anchorage, coalition Democratic Sen. Matt Claman has a substantial lead over Republican challenger Liz Vazquez.

Democratic Anchorage Sen. Bill Wielechowski, a member of the bipartisan caucus’s leadership team, said late Tuesday that it’s clear that voters think bipartisanship works.

“I think in the end, voters want us to get things done,” he said by phone. “They want to move Alaska forward  and I think that’s the message that comes out of this, is that they want us to work together

The only member of the bipartisan majority trailing is Wasilla Republican Sen. David Wilson. His Republican challenger Robert Yundt has a double-digit lead.

Another race is close: In Fairbanks, Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki, a coalition member, has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Leslie Hajdukovich.

And in the race for an open seat in the vast Interior Senate District R vacated by the Republican coalition member Click Bishop, Republican Rep. Mike Cronk leads independent Savannah Fletcher by a wide margin. Cronk has more than half the vote.

Control of the state House is up in the air

Though early results indicate the Senate is unlikely to flip from bipartisan control, control of the state House is uncertain.

The chamber is narrowly divided. The Republican-led majority has 23 of 40 seats. It’s a majority made possible by rural legislators in the so-called Bush Caucus, including Democrats and independents.

Many races key to control of the chamber are in Anchorage, where Democrats and independents hope to pick up seats currently controlled by Republicans. So far, they do appear poised to flip some seats. 

In Northeast Anchorage, Democrat Ted Eischeid leads incumbent Republican Stanley Wright. In a coastal South Anchorage district previously held by Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw, independent Ky Holland has a double-digit lead. 

Democrats are also well-positioned to pick up the North Slope and Northwest Arctic House District 40. Democrat Robyn Burke leads Republican-turned-independent Rep. Thomas Baker early Wednesday by nearly 50 points.

House Minority Leader Calvin Schrage, an Anchorage independent, said he was optimistic a multiparty coalition could take control of the lower chamber, flipping it from Republican control.

“What it should show, when we have final results, is that Alaskans are ready for us to have a majority that’s going to solve some of these problems facing Alaska, whether it’s our workforce or fully funding education, making sure that we address our economy and the cost of energy in Alaska,” he said.

Another member of the Republican majority, South Anchorage Republican Rep. Craig Johnson, is trailing the more moderate Republican former Rep. Chuck Kopp, who joined a bipartisan coalition during a previous stint in the House, by a wide margin.

Republicans lead in some other close Anchorage races. Republican Mia Costello leads Democrat Denny Wells for an open seat in the Sand Lake area previously held by Republican Tom McKay. On the Hillside, Republican Rep. Julie Coulombe is ahead of independent Walter Featherly. And in a district that includes Government Hill, Northeast Anchorage and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Republican challenger David Nelson is just a few dozen votes behind incumbent Democrat Cliff Groh. 

And Wasilla Republican Rep. David Eastman, the controversial archconservative who is a member of neither the majority nor minority caucus, may lose reelection. He trails Republican Jubilee Underwood in a tight race.

House Speaker Cathy Tilton said those results provide a reason for optimism. She said it’s hard to draw any firm conclusions about who will control the chamber.

“I wouldn’t say there’s any, like, huge surprises,” she said. “There are some that I would have liked to see gone a different way, but … there’s still lots of votes out there, so we’ll just have to see what happens with those.”

Republicans’ best opportunity to pick up a seat is in District 1, which covers southern Southeast Alaska communities including Ketchikan, Wrangell and Metlakatla. Republican borough assembly member Jeremy Bynum leads his two independent challengers, former fellow assembly member Grant EchoHawk and nonprofit leader Agnes Moran. The House seat was previously held by independent Dan Ortiz, who successfully peeled off conservative voters in earlier campaigns but decided not to seek reelection. Bynum has more than half the vote so far. If he can maintain a majority, he could win the race outright.

But, there’s only so much you can know on election night.

Even after results are finalized, because lawmakers don’t always fall along neat partisan lines, it can take weeks or months after the election for majority caucuses in the House and Senate to organize. So while we may know the results of some races, it is difficult to say definitively who will control each chamber.

This story was last updated at 7 a.m. Nov. 6.

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