The yellow umbrella that tops Tia’s Gourmet Sausages and Gyros has been a staple in downtown Anchorage for well over a decade. The location on Fourth Avenue is normally bustling in the summer, but around lunchtime on Monday, it’s unusually quiet.
“Our sales are really low, really low,” said owner David Vargas. “We have to try to survive here.”
So far this year, he said sales are similar to 2020, when travel restrictions spurred by the COVID pandemic turned tourist hubs into ghost towns.
Political tensions have caused some international travelers to cancel their vacations to Alaska. And nationally, spending on airfare and lodging has fallen in recent months, which Bank of America’s April consumer data report notes is “possibly due to declining consumer confidence and worries about the economic outlook.”
The nation’s consumer sentiment fell to a nearly three-year low in April, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. That followed three consecutive months of decline.
It’ll be months until there’s data showing how political and economic forces shaped 2025 travel plans to and in Alaska, but anecdotally, communities are already feeling the impact.
“As we enter into our busiest season, ‘uncertain’ is really the only word that sums it up nicely,” said Julie Saupe, President and CEO of Visit Anchorage.
In a March report prepared for the assembly, the organization said the industry was bracing for “headwinds” including inflation, economic downturns and an uncertain outlook for international visitors.
Saupe said businesses in the state’s largest city started the year with strong booking numbers for the summer season, but beginning in mid-February, bookings slowed dramatically. Overall, she’s expecting Anchorage will see a slight decrease in visitor numbers this summer compared to last year.
“No growth or a little bit of lower numbers is never anything you want to see,” she said. “It's hard to make plans if you're a business. So, I think we'll have an okay summer. I think it could have been a great summer, and that's where the disappointment falls.”
Travel numbers were slightly up for the first quarter, she said, but the second quarter is already showing signs of slowdown.
Alaska attracts millions of tourists to the state annually, and they contribute billions of dollars to the local economy. The tourism industry supported nearly 50,000 jobs in the 2022-23 travel season, according to Alaska Travel Industry Association.
The association’s president, Jillian Simpson, shared a similar sentiment about this year’s travel outlook.
“We're cautiously optimistic,” she said. “We don't have a good sense of anything at this point in time, especially since it's just the beginning of the season. So it's really what we're hearing from members. Some of them are saying things are okay, and some of them are saying that it's softer a little bit.”
The state is still expecting a large number of cruise ship passengers, she said. Cruises are typically booked several months in advance and require deposits, which could make travelers less likely to cancel their reservations.
Economic uncertainty could also spur more in state travel, Simpson said. If Alaskans feel unsure about booking an expensive trip to the lower 48 but want an adventure, they might opt to explore another part of the state.
And those who do may score special offers, according to a recent Anchorage Daily News piece by travel writer Scott McMurren. There are discounts for cruises, resorts, and even rafting trips.
In Southeast Alaska uncertainty is weighing on some tourism dependent companies and communities, according to an annual business survey conducted by Rain Coast Data that over 400 business leaders contributed to.
Owner and director of Rain Coast, Meilani Schijvens, said cruise passengers are arriving in large numbers, but they may not be spending as much.
“I think that the concern is that visitors that are coming off the cruise ships seem to have a greater sensitivity towards pricing,” Schijvens said. “So less people booking those high end tours in advance. The survey was done pre season, but they were looking at those advanced bookings, and they seem to be way down from prior years.”
According to the survey, Airbnb hosts also say bookings are down, and a helicopter tour operator said people are canceling tours. Cruise ship operators experienced a wane in independent and international booking which can be partially attributed to political instability, the survey said.
About 45 miles from the Canadian border, Haines has seen over a dozen cruise ships so far this season. The town is accessible by road, which brings visitors– and their cash– from both Alaska and Canada.
Reba Hylton is the tourism director in Haines, where she’s heard from Canadanians who won’t be visiting the town this summer.
“We are used to quite a bit of road traffic,” she said. “It is so much quieter this year.”
In February, the Haines Assembly sent a letter to Haines Junction, Yukon to “reaffirm our long relationship of friendship, cooperation, and mutual assistance,” according to Mayor Tom Morphet. The Canadian mayor responded with a request that the town publicly support Canada’s sovereignty.
Haines hosts three events every summer that Hylton said usually lures a stream of Canadian visitors. The first was the Great Alaska Craft Beer & Home Brew Festival in May which typically draws a crowd from all corners of the continent.
Ticket sales for the event were down over 20% this year, Hylton said.
“That really is unheard of. It's the kind of festival where your friends are looking for tickets at the last minute, and you can kind of count on always being able to get rid of your tickets if something comes up and you can't attend, because it does, historically, all sell out,” Hylton said.
In Haines, they’re preparing for the 150-mile Kluane Chilkat International Bike Relay at the end of June. Entries are down about the same amount for that event too, she said.
“We're feeling the loss already,” she said. “But at this point, it's still really early, and the Beer Fest was my first big like, ‘we're going to have some data from it’, and knowing that that one particular event was down 20% is a little alarming.”
She said the city’s tourism account on social media, which she runs, has fielded comments from international travelers saying they’re boycotting travel to the town, and won’t return until President Trump leaves office.
