Anchorage is expected to add 2,300 jobs this year, according to a new report by the Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Employment in the city has grown about 2% annually since 2020, but it’s expected to slow to 1.5% in 2025.
The report’s author, Samuel Tappen, found that despite an overall increase in the amount of jobs, there’s a few long-term trends hindering growth.
“The big one is negative net migration. We've now experienced negative net migration for 10 years, which is unprecedented,” Tappen said.
That means more people have moved out of Alaska than have moved in over the last decade.
Tappen said the last year Anchorage experienced population growth from people moving to the city was during the recession of 2008, which was the longest economic downturn since World War II. The downturn caused labor disruptions in the Lower 48, though Alaska’s economy was less affected.
The health care and educational and health services sectors are projected to add the most jobs in 2025, adding 800 each, jumping 3.7% and 2.9% respectively. Construction is also expected to see strong growth, adding 600 jobs, spiking 7.2%.
Retail trade, information and financial services are expected to lose jobs, according to the report.
Construction led job growth in Anchorage last year by 9.2%, the report said. Statewide, the sector paid 16% more in total wages from 2022 to 2023.
Although the construction sector won’t add the most jobs in 2025, it’ll enable employment in other industries, according to the report.
Tappen said the growth in the construction industry was expected in part because of the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act which will send more than $5 billion to Alaska for various projects.
A surge in local construction projects has created a tight labor market for the industry, and Tappen said about 14% of construction workers in Anchorage travel to the city from out of state.
“We see this fluctuate a little bit as local labor conditions change, but this is something that Alaska has always relied on more than other states,” he said.
Tappen said a portion of workers who come to Alaska for temporary work end up becoming residents. He said federal investments and a narrow labor market could drive up the nonresident hire rate, which could boost in-migration.
The report said Anchorage is benefitting from major North Slope oil projects, like Willow and Pikka, because the city is a hub for services like engineering, health care and business.
The over $5 billion in federal infrastructure funds include spending plans for expanding broadband access in rural areas and various other infrastructure needs. And while some of those projects are outside city limits, Tappen said they’ll still benefit the local economy.
“Anchorage, which really has the largest and most specialized economy in the state, has been a hub for goods and services to the rest of the state for decades,” he said. “These contractors are supplying their materials from Anchorage firms.”
Anchorage’s working-age population is down by 19,000 people since its peak in 2013, according to the report, or roughly 6% percent. Statewide, economists anticipate the working age population will continue to decline through 2030.
