An unseasonably warm January will bring at least an inch of rain to almost all of Southcentral Alaska this weekend, with deep snow set to fall in the Talkeetna area.
Much of the region, including Anchorage, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and the Kenai Peninsula, is under a flood watch from Friday morning through Monday morning.
“Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,” National Weather Service forecasters wrote. “Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”
Shaun Baines, a senior Weather Service meteorologist in Anchorage, said 1 to 2.5 inches of rain is forecast to drop on Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley and the western Kenai Peninsula from Friday through Sunday, with more in other communities.
It’s a lot of rain for the area. For comparison, Anchorage’s single-day January rainfall record, set on Jan. 21, 1961, stands at 0.84 inches.
“There's a good chance that we could break that record sometime this weekend,” Baines said.
Baines said based on statistical data and estimates, Southcentral will likely not see sustained rain like this again in another five to 25 years.
“That sort of gives you an idea of how unusual an event is,” he said.
The rain is part of a warm winter cycle for Alaska, while swaths of the Lower 48 freeze. Even New Orleans has gotten more snow than Anchorage this winter.
New Orleans, LA has received more than double the amount of snowfall we've received here in Anchorage, AK since the start of meteorological winter (Dec. 1). New Orleans: 8.0"
— NWS Anchorage (@NWSAnchorage) January 22, 2025
Anchorage: 3.8"@NWSNewOrleans, we'd like our snow back. Or at least some King Cake in return. 😉🙃
“We've been in this warm pattern, and that will not change here in the next few days,” Baines said. “And as we see throughout the winter season especially, we're going to see development of an atmospheric river, which brings a long fetch of moisture from the tropics all the way to southern Alaska.”
The rains are set to fall across an area ranging from the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and Anchorage south across the entire Kenai Peninsula and east across Prince William Sound. Baines said meteorologists are expecting widespread flooding along roads and residential yards, with the watch calling for 2 to 6 inches of rain in the Susitna Valley, eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound.
“It's going to be periods of moderate to heavy rain through the weekend, starting tomorrow and through the weekend,” he said. “And there's not a lot of snow on the ground in a lot of places, but the ground is frozen, so the water that falls will not be able to soak into the ground.”
The weather service says people with property along area rivers and streams should remain aware of degrading conditions this weekend.
Farther north, Willow and Talkeetna are under a winter weather advisory for 8 to 12 inches of snow through 6 a.m. Friday.
“We don't have a real strong storm system in this case, and the weaker storm systems are sort of tracking out over the eastern Bering Sea into Southwest Alaska,” Baines said. “So there's nothing to really drive that warm air, let's say, up to the Alaska Range and north of the Alaska Range.”
The forecast next week calls for deep winter cold to finally return. Temperatures in Anchorage are expected to fall from this week’s 30-to-40 degree range to single digits by the middle of next week. But the snowfall chances are harder to determine.
“Bottom line, it will return to more normal temperatures, and we'll see whether we get some snow with that as well,” Baines said.
