The scene outside the elevators near the Senate Chamber is like a barometer of tension in D.C. politics. When President-elect Donald Trump writes a norm-busting social media post or names a controversial cabinet nominee, reporters flock to this marble corridor and wait for senators to arrive.
The senators always in demand — and especially these days — are the Republican moderates, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Any word they say could be a national news story.
Like when Trump announced former Congressman Matt Gaetz to lead the Department of Justice. Reporters asked Murkowski if she thought he was a “serious candidate.”
“Not as far as I’m concerned,” she said.
News outlets as far away as France and New Zealand reported those six words from Murkowski, before Gaetz ended that potential Senate showdown by withdrawing his name.
U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski occupies a rare place among her 99 colleagues. She doesn’t necessarily stick to what party leaders would want her to do and her propensity to cross the aisle could stand between Trump and his agenda.
So it’s a question a minute for her these days. Does she think Trump can deploy the military to aid with deportations? Is she willing to have the Senate step aside so Trump can make recess appointments?
“It's just been this constant barrage of, you know, ‘What do you think about this nominee? What do you think about that nominee? What do you …’ and it's like, everybody: hold the phone,’” Murkowski said, after squeezing past a throng of reporters.
There’s a constitutional essence to many of these questions lobbed at her. She’s asked, in multiple ways, if she’ll hold the line on the separation of powers. Republican partisans are furious that Murkowski might block a president of her own party from quickly assembling the cabinet he wants. But those nervous about the coming Trump administration, when Republicans will hold the House, the Senate and the White House, are looking to Murkowski to be a bulwark against Trump.
“I think it's an incredibly interesting spot. I mean, she's used to this, right? At this point,” said Charlie Hunt, an assistant professor of political science at Boise State University.
Hunt watches Congress like a favorite TV show. Especially now, with political transition underway.
“Where there's new members, where there's new dynamics, new leaders — that's kind of an exciting time for me, sort of like my Super Bowl,” he said.
The Senate has been closely divided for 15 years, which gives Murkowski and a handful of other moderates some clout. Hunt points to her role in one of the most dramatic votes in recent memory, over the attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, in the first year of Trump’s first term. Sen. John McCain gave it a thumbs down, but that was only decisive because Murkowski and Collins had already voted against it.
“It was going to be the centerpiece of the Trump agenda, and it ended up getting voted down at the last minute,” Hunt said. “This was an instance where she was really using her leverage.”
That was a rare moment. Usually, a majority leader won’t bring a bill to the floor unless he’s got the votes, which takes some behind-the-scenes work.
“As the Senate has stayed really close between Democrats and Republicans, that has meant that people like Murkowski have been able to really hold on to a significant amount of power and been able, I think, to extract a lot of favors and power out of that individual position that they're in.” Hunt said.
It’s not by accident that, a few months after the health care vote, Trump’s tax cut bill included a plum Murkowski had sought her whole political career: Oil leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
So that’s the power a moderate like Murkowski can wield in a closely divided Senate. But the Senate Republican majority won't be so razor-thin next year. Murkowski and Collins would need two other Republican aisle-crossers to swing a vote. Hunt’s parlor game is guessing who those senators might be. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia? She has been moderate on some issues. So has Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana? He was one of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and he’s the only one besides Murkowski and Collins who will still be a senator next year. But Hunt’s money is on the senator-elect from Utah, John Curtis, who used to be a Democrat.
“I think issue by issue, you know, if you're Murkowski, that's kind of what you're looking at,” Hunt said. “‘Where can I form these moderate blocs to try to, you know, leverage my influence as much as possible, so that me and Susan Collins and maybe, maybe John Curtis are not totally marginalized and just steamrolled by the other 49 Republicans, plus JD Vance.’”
And in the meantime, the questions keep coming at Murkowski, especially about nominees. Will she support the nominee for Defense secretary? How about Trump’s selection for FBI director? She’d like to remind people Trump hasn’t even been sworn in yet.
“The president doesn't come into office until the 20th of January,” she said. “We’ve got a lot of time to do a lot more independent digging about all of these people.”
Murkowski believes in the deliberative process, her own and the Senate’s. She often frustrates everyone by not declaring beforehand whether she intends to stand against her party or go with the Republican flow.
