The world’s biggest sockeye salmon run will be larger than average next year, state biologists have forecasted.
The Bristol Bay sockeye run is expected to total 51.21 million fish in 2025, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s preseason forecast, issued last week.
That is 38% more than the long-term average of 37.07 million, calculated from 1963 to this year, the department’s forecast said. However, it is 16% smaller than the most recent 10-year average, a period that included extremely large runs and consecutive records in 2021 and 2022.
Next year’s run is expected to support a sockeye salmon harvest of 36.33 million fish, according to the department’s forecast.
The forecast is based on models that consider the relationships between different age classes of fish, past performances and other factors. The calculations are complex, the department said in its forecast statement, and the resulting estimate is 51.21 million sockeye is within a range of 37.02 million to 65.6 million fish.
“Forecasting future salmon returns is inherently difficult and uncertain,” the department said in its statement.
Yet to be determined is whether next year’s anticipated sockeye return will lift the fortunes of the fishers, salmon-dependent communities and the wider seafood industry.
Salmon harvesters and the Alaska seafood industry in general have struggled in recent years with glutted markets – notably, from competing Russian suppliers – softened demand and low prices, on top of rising operating costs.
This year’s Bristol Bay salmon season reflected some of those challenges. While the sockeye run totaled 51.6 million fish, about 7% above the average over the past 20 years, the value to fishers of the 31.6 million fish harvested was about a third lower than the average over the past 20 years.
Payments to fishers for their salmon upon delivery, known as the ex-vessel value, totaled $128.1 million this year, down from the 20-year average of $193.4 million. However, this year’s total value improved over the difficult year prior, when the ex-vessel value was only $117.4 million.
The value of this year’s Bristol Bay sockeye salmon harvest was also hurt by what turned out to be a record-small average fish size.
Pacific salmon have been shrinking in size, a change attributed to faster maturity in the ocean and earlier returns to spawning grounds. Climate change is believed to be at play, though there are other factors also contributing to the trend, according to scientists.
The economic challenges facing the Bristol Bay salmon industry are reflected in job numbers, although improvement in employment is possible, according to the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
The Bristol Bay region lost 7.2% of its fish-harvesting jobs in 2023, compared with the year prior, said the department, which analyzed job data in the November issue of its research magazine, Alaska Economic Trends.
“This area has the highest likelihood of rebounding, however, because its decline had nothing to do with biology. If prices recover, harvesters will return,” the Alaska Economic Trends analysis said.