Six House and Senate races to watch as voters make their picks for Alaska Legislature

Voting is well underway in the November election ahead of Election Day this coming Tuesday.

There are, of course, the headline races: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump. Mary Peltola vs. Nick Begich. 

But there’s a lot to watch on the state level, too. Control of the state House and Senate is in play. So what happens on Election Day will shape what state policy on everything from public education and oil and gas taxes to the future of the Permanent Fund and the state budget.

Alaska Public Media’s state capitol reporter, Eric Stone, is tracking contests around the state and joined Alaska News Nightly host Casey Grove to talk about them.

Listen:

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This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Casey Grove: What will you be watching the most closely as results roll in on Election Day?

Eric Stone: Let me tell you — there is a long list of races that could be interesting, all over the state. But I’ve whittled it down to a few races that I think are the most interesting.

Let’s start with the House. First, a reminder of where things stand. In the House, Republicans currently have control, narrowly. So that means just a few flipped races — maybe even one or two — could swing control from Republicans to a left-leaning coalition of Democrats and independents.

CG: So what are some of those races that could flip control of the House?

ES: There are quite a few.

(1. House District 22, North Muldoon)

In Northeast Anchorage, incumbent Republican Rep. Stanley Wright is facing a challenge from Democrat Ted Eischeid. It’s a rematch from 2022. Last time around, Eischeid lost by 72 votes. Notably, Wright was one of just a few House Republicans to vote to override a veto of a bill that would have boosted state funding for public schools. 

In the primary, Eischeid outran Wright by about 3 percentage points, but voter turnout was very low — below 10% in that primary race. It’ll be a very different, and much bigger, group of voters who come out with the presidency on the ballot. Thousands across the state have already voted.

(2. House District 40, Arctic)

Democrats also view House District 40 as a pickup opportunity. That’s the district that includes the North Slope and the Northwest Arctic — Kotzebue, Utqiagvik and other northern communities. Gov. Mike Dunleavy appointed Thomas Baker to the seat after Josiah Patkotak resigned to become borough mayor. Baker was a Republican at the time. He has since changed his affiliation to independent.

And Baker was walloped in the primary. He came in third behind Democrats Robyn Burke and Saima Chase, who are both pretty well-known in the region for their work in local government. Burke leads the North Slope Borough school board and Chase is the mayor of Kotzebue. Education is a big issue in that race. Baker voted to sustain the veto of that education bill I mentioned a moment ago. Burke and Chase have both criticized him over that. Both of them cite that vote as their inspiration for running.

Since it’s a three-way race and it’s a rural district where votes could take a while to come in, we might not know the outcome until Nov. 20. But if Baker comes in third as he did in the primary, he’ll be eliminated.

CG: And where do Republicans think they can pick up seats?

(3. House District 1, Ketchikan/Wrangell/Metlakatla/Coffman Cove/Whale Pass)

ES: One big opportunity for House Republicans is House District 1 in my former home community of Ketchikan. That was represented by independent Dan Ortiz for years. And even though Ortiz caucused with Democrats and independents, he picked up a lot of what might have been traditionally Republican voters. He beat the Republican candidate last time around, borough assembly member Jeremy Bynum.

Bynum is back in the race this year. There are also two independents in the race — Grant EchoHawk and Agnes Moran, both well-known community figures in Ketchikan. And they split about half of the vote in the primary. But Bynum had a big lead in the primary. He nearly topped 50% and has a solid advantage in fundraising, so his chances are pretty good in the general. We’ll have to see.

CG: What’s the situation in races for state Senate?

ES: Republicans have a few pickup opportunities there, too, but it remains to be seen whether it’ll be enough to swing control.

(4. Senate District P, Downtown Fairbanks, East Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright)

In Fairbanks, Republicans are campaigning hard to challenge Democrat Scott Kawasaki. Republican Leslie Hajdukovich has raised more than $217,000. That makes her the top fundraiser in the state. Kawasaki ran about three points behind her in the primary.

(5. Senate District L, Eagle River/Chugiak)

There are also some interesting intra-party Senate races. Like, conservatives are hoping to oust Eagle River Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick. She has caucused with the bipartisan majority for the last two years, and conservative Republican Jared Goecker has made that a key issue in the race. Goecker and Merrick were neck-and-neck in the primary. Each got about a third of the race. There’s a Democrat in the race, too, Lee Hammermeister, but he is not endorsed by the party. He might be a factor, and it could come down to second choices in that race.

(6. Senate District D, Kenai, Soldotna, Northern Kenai Peninsula)

And Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, on the central Kenai Peninsula, is facing a conservative challenger in Rep. Ben Carpenter. Bjorkman is a member of the bipartisan Senate majority. He supported increasing long-term school funding and a pension plan for state workers last session. Bjorkman is far outraising Carpenter, though, and he beat Carpenter in the primary by four points. There is also a Democrat in that race, Tina Wegener, who is not endorsed by the Democratic Party and hasn’t campaigned much. I would expect most of her second-choice votes to go to Bjorkman.

But all in all, it might be tough for conservatives to pick up enough seats to flip the Senate from bipartisan coalition control. The majority currently has 17 members — nine Democrats and eight Republicans. 

It’s also important to say here — we probably won’t know exactly who is going to control the House and Senate for a while after the election. Not only do we have to wait until Nov. 20 for all the results to come in, and for ranked choice tabulation to happen, we’ll also need to wait for the caucuses to organize. That could happen between the election and the start of the session in January, or it could drag on for weeks even after the session starts. In 2021, it was February by the time the House elected a speaker.