Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene slammed into Florida’s Gulf Coast and wreaked a path of destruction across the southeastern U.S., the state is bracing for another — and likely even more powerful — major hurricane to come ashore.
Hurricane Milton reached Category 5 — the strongest of the classifications — on Monday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, the National Hurricane Center said shortly before noon E.T.
It underwent what forecasters call “remarkable” rapid intensification after being upgraded from a tropical storm on Sunday, blowing past Category 4 strength in a matter of hours.
The National Hurricane Center had warned earlier on Monday that Milton would soon become a Category 5 storm, predicting it would reach maximum sustained winds of 165 mph in 12 hours before weakening gradually.
But it appears to have strengthened even faster than experts predicted, with NHC Director Michael Brennan calling its rate of intensification “extreme” in a Monday morning briefing.
The NHC says it’s only seen such rapid strengthening in a storm system twice before: Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007.
“There are simply no words to describe the extraordinary intensification we have witnessed in this storm today,” US Stormwatch weather analyst Colin McCarthy posted on X.
As of midday Monday, Milton was about 125 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 735 miles west-southwest of Tampa, moving east at the relatively slow pace of about 9 mph.
Much of the Yucatan Peninsula coast is under a hurricane warning, while hurricane watches, storm surge watches and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for parts of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.
Milton is expected to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday before crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaching Florida’s west coast by Wednesday.
The storm is forecast to weaken slightly before it makes landfall on Wednesday, but it’s still predicted to be a “major” hurricane then. For instance, Katrina in 2005 was a Category 5 in the Gulf but weakened to a Category 3 before hitting Louisiana and Mississippi. Milton, like Katrina, will be pushing a big wall of water ahead of its arrival.
The NHC says most models agree that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula, though people “should not focus on the exact track” because models still disagree about the exact location and timing of landfall.
Even so, forecasters warn that it is likely to be a “large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the coastline.”
They say areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida on Monday, and again on Tuesday through Wednesday night, bringing “the risk of considerable flash, urban and areal flooding,” and the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys could see 5 to 10 inches of rain through Wednesday night, with localized totals up to 15 inches in some areas.
There is also a growing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for parts of Florida’s west coast beginning late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Forecasters say it could raise water levels to as high as 8 to 12 feet in coastal areas of Florida, including Tampa Bay.
Florida Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie, speaking at a Monday morning briefing, implored Tampa Bay residents under evacuation orders to heed them.
“I beg you, I implore you, to evacuate,” he said. “Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable, if you leave.”
Several Florida counties have ordered evacuations so far, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that people should expect “a flurry of them” throughout the day. State officials are urging Floridians to follow local guidance and make emergency preparations, whether they are evacuating or sheltering at home.
“You have an opportunity today to do what you need to do to execute this plan,” DeSantis said. “But time is going to start running out very, very soon.”
Floridians are bracing for evacuations and impact
DeSantis has already expanded an emergency declaration to cover 51 of the state’s 67 counties and is warning people across the peninsula to prepare.
“Do not get wedded to the cone,” he tweeted on Sunday. “Floridians should prepare now for potential impacts, even if you live outside of the forecast cone.”
Guthrie said on Sunday that the state is preparing “for the largest evacuation that we have seen most likely since 2017 Hurricane Irma,” when nearly 6.8 million Floridians left their homes, resulting in statewide traffic jams.
But he also cautioned inland residents who don’t live in an evacuation zone or depend on electricity for medical needs that “it may be better for you to just stay in place.”
Emergency officials are reminding Floridians that they may not need to travel far to evacuate — potentially only a matter of several miles to a higher elevation or wind-proofed shelter.
“You don’t have to evacuate hundreds of miles,” DeSantis said. “Every county has places within them that you can go to. Maybe it’s a friend’s house, maybe it’s a hotel, maybe it’s a shelter.”
A growing number of Florida counties have ordered evacuations of certain areas and home types (like RVs, mobile homes and boats), effective Monday. Those include Charlotte, Manatee, Pasco, Hillsborough and Sarasota Counties, as well as Pinellas County, which ordered the evacuation of certain residential healthcare facilities starting on Sunday.
Emergency officials are urging Floridians to look up their zone, plan an evacuation route and leave as soon as they’re ordered to do so.
Guthrie also said Floridians should take into account that many are still recovering from Helene: Did they use up their reserves of water, food, pet food? Do they need to buy fresh batteries? Have they restocked their supply kits to last each family member up to seven days?
“Please make sure you’re doing that today,” he said.
DeSantis said at a Monday morning press conference that Florida’s Division of Emergency Management is already fielding “hundreds of resource requests” from communities preparing for the storm, sending truckloads of food and water to central Florida and deploying more than 2,000 feet of “flood protection systems,” prioritizing critical infrastructure like hospitals and fire stations.
He also said the state is ramping up its efforts to remove outstanding debris from Helene — which would add a layer of danger and potential damage if picked up by Milton’s strong winds — calling that a “24/7 round-the-clock mission.”
Lines started forming at gas stations on Sunday as people stocked up on fuel, water and other supplies, member station WGCU reported.
It notes that public school districts in many counties will be closed from Monday through at least Wednesday and that Florida Gulf Coast University — near Fort Myers — will close its campus Tuesday and Wednesday, after shifting to remote operations.
The St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport has already announced the cancellation of all Allegiant Air flights on Wednesday and Thursday. NASA and SpaceX are also delaying the launch attempt of their Europe Clipper mission, which was originally scheduled for Thursday.
Milton is forecast to spare other states submerged by Helene
Milton is poised to strike an area still recovering from Helene’s Category 4 winds and rains.
But it is expected to exit into the Atlantic Ocean, sparing many of the southeastern states that were hit hardest by Helene, including Georgia and the Carolinas.
More than 220 people were killed by Helene, one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit the mainland U.S. since Katrina in 2005. The Associated Press reports that about half of the victims were in North Carolina, where historic flooding destroyed entire communities.
Abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, fueled by human-caused climate change, has made it easier for hurricanes to strengthen rapidly and bring even more wind and rain ashore.
Milton is the ninth hurricane to form in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November. It’s the fifth to form since Sept. 25 alone, breaking a previous record of two during that period.
And this was officially the first time three simultaneous hurricanes were recorded in the Atlantic Ocean after September, according to storm researcher Philip Klotzbach. Hurricane Leslie continues to brew, while Kirk was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone late Monday morning.
NPR’s Russell Lewis contributed reporting.
