With the state in a recession, many are searching for economic signs of what’s in store for 2017. Last Friday, inside a packed ballroom at a hotel in downtown Anchorage, members of the business and real-estate industries gathered to hear the forecast for Alaska’s largest city.
The event was hosted by Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA). And the theme from just about every speaker was that for Anchorage, the economic news is not as bad as many expected.
Employment is down — but not too dramatically. State economist Neal Fried told the audience that in the last year Alaska shed 3,200 jobs, or a decline of 2.3 percent. Fried thinks 2017 will continue to see employment declines, but at a slower pace.
“This is my forecast,” Fried told the crowd. “I’m predicting that the number of jobs in Anchorage will fall again in 2017 by 1.8 percent, in numbers that’s about 2,800. We feel that we’re going to probably lose fewer jobs in some of those basic sectors like oil and gas, but the loss of those jobs from last year are going to spread more into our secondary sectors.”
Those include retail, hospitality, construction, and support services. But unlike past eras, Fried said Anchorage’s economy is better diversified and able to withstand the ongoing oil price slump. And importantly for both home and commercial property owners, Fried insists Anchorage isn’t seeing a real-estate bubble.
“This current recession really has very little to do with real-estate, it’s nothing like the 1980s,” Fried said, referring to a particularly grim period in Anchorage’s economic history.
While expensive homes and top-quality commercial properties are not selling or leasing as quickly as they did a few years ago, speakers stressed that the data shows relative stability across much of market.
Other speakers at the event touched on development and commercial real-estate in Anchorage. They high-lighted new construction projects and national chains slated to move in, although they acknowledged the pace has slowed from recent years.
One bright-spot for the state is an influx of defense dollars in support of the F-35 program slated for Eielson Air Force Base.
The event’s last speaker,Ted Jenson, summed up the general sentiments when he told the crowd that the “sky’s not falling,” and in fact, for those planning on being in Anchorage for a while, there are some good deals to be found.
Zachariah Hughes reports on city & state politics, arts & culture, drugs, and military affairs in Anchorage and South Central Alaska.
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