Breakup has started on the Kuskokwim River in front of the upper-river community of Nikolai.
Ice broke during the 8 a.m. hour on Tuesday, according to the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center, a branch of the National Weather Service, which monitors river breakups throughout the state. It's a day earlier than Nikolai's average breakup date of April 23.
Hydrologist Johnse Ostman with the River Forecast Center said community reports helped verify what the river forecast team had observed through satellite imagery.
"With Nikolai going out, that initiates – starts breakup for the 2025 season. It's exciting for us. It means that we can start actually looking at timelines," Ostman said.
Ostman said there's typically around 10 days between breakup in Nikolai and the next communities downriver – Stony River and Sleetmute.
"We also are seeing – using satellite imagery and some photos that were shared with us from community members in Stony River – that that ice is rotting away up there, and there's a fair amount of open water, so we might just see things sort of mush their way out a little sooner than if we had this big dynamic push of water," Ostman said. "It's still relatively cold out in the upper Kuskokwim."
Ostman said Riverwatch team members from the forecast center and State Emergency Operations Center will be in Bethel before April 30. That's when they plan to start running daily observation flights to track ice movement and potential flooding as breakup works its way down the Kuskokwim. Ostman said the river monitoring flights could be delayed if there's a spell of cold weather.
Overall, the River Forecast Center has predicted a lower than average potential for breakup flooding on the Kuskokwim and lower Yukon rivers this year, in part because of low snowpack and warmer-than-average winter conditions.
Community members up and down the Kuskokwim can share river observations with the forecast center by calling 907-266-5160. Ostman said the team also monitors local social media pages like the Bethel Search and Rescue trail conditions Facebook page.
Throughout breakup season, the National Weather Service and State Emergency Operations Center host Kuskokwim community breakup calls at 10 a.m. on Monday mornings, where residents up and down the river can report on breakup and flood conditions. Join the next call, scheduled for Monday (April 28), by calling 1-800-315-6338. The conference ID is 71000.
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