How Alaska legislative races are shaping up

Results are rolling in late Tuesday for the Alaska legislative races.

At stake: control of the House and Senate, responsible for setting state policy on everything from education to energy to the Permanent Fund and more.

So far, with 73% of precincts reporting, many coalition-minded Senate candidates are leading, and control of the state House is up in the air. 

Absentee ballots will continue to be counted as they arrive for up to 15 days after the election. And in any race where no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, ranked choice tabulation will determine the winner on Nov. 20.

That said, here are some more takeaways from early results:

Bipartisan coalition members lead in many races for Alaska Senate 

Many conservative Republicans hoped to break the 17-member bipartisan majority that controls the state Senate. The caucus is made up of nine Democrats and eight Republicans, but some conservative Senate candidates have objected to what they see as a betrayal by coalition members. 

But even before results emerged, that appeared to be an uphill battle given the seats in play this year. 

So far, members of the Senate’s bipartisan coalition are leading in some key races.

On the Kenai Peninsula, incumbent Republican Sen. Jesse Bjorkman leads his conservative challenger, Rep. Ben Carpenter. Bjorkman far outraised Carpenter in the race. During the last session, Bjorkman supported bills that would boost public school funding and return state employees to a pension system. Carpenter opposed both bills.

In Chugiak-Eagle River, conservative Republican Jared Goecker is trailing incumbent Sen. Kelly Merrick, also a Republican. She is a member of the bipartisan coalition, and that’s been a key issue in the race.

Merrick says she joined the bipartisan caucus in order to deliver results for her constituents; Goecker says she betrayed her conservative constituents by doing so. But in early results, voters are favoring Merrick. 

In Fairbanks, Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki, a coalition member, has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Leslie Hajdukovich.

In Anchorage, coalition Democratic Sen. Matt Claman has a substantial lead over Republican challenger Liz Vazquez.

The only member of the bipartisan majority trailing is Wasilla Republican Sen. David Wilson. His Republican challenger Robert Yundt has a double-digit lead.

And in the race for an open seat in the vast Interior Senate District R vacated by the Republican coalition member Click Bishop, Republican Rep. Mike Cronk leads independent Savannah Fletcher by a wide margin. Cronk has more than half the vote.

Control of the state House is up in the air

Though early results indicate the Senate is unlikely to flip from bipartisan control, control of the state House is uncertain.

The chamber is narrowly divided, with its current 23-17 Republican-led majority made possible by rural legislators in the so-called Bush Caucus, including Democrats and independents.

Many races key to control of the chamber are in Anchorage, where Democrats and independents hope to pick up seats currently controlled by Republicans. So far, they do appear poised to flip some seats. 

In Northeast Anchorage, Democrat Ted Eischeid leads incumbent Republican Stanley Wright. In a coastal South Anchorage district previously held by Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw, independent Ky Holland has a double-digit lead. 

Democrats are also well-positioned to pick up the North Slope and Northwest Arctic House District 40. Democrat Robyn Burke leads Republican-turned-independent Rep. Thomas Baker by more than 60 points, though few votes have been counted in that race.

Another member of the Republican majority, South Anchorage Republican Rep. Craig Johnson, is trailing the more moderate Republican former Rep. Chuck Kopp, who joined a bipartisan coalition during a previous stint in the House, by a wide margin.

Republicans lead in some other close Anchorage races. Republican Mia Costello leads Democrat Denny Wells for an open seat in the Sand Lake area previously held by Republican Tom McKay. On the Hillside, Republican Rep. Julie Coulombe is ahead of independent Walter Featherly. 

Republicans’ best opportunity to pick up a seat is in District 1, which covers southern Southeast Alaska communities including Ketchikan, Wrangell and Metlakatla. Republican borough assembly member Jeremy Bynum leads his two independent challengers, fellow assembly member Grant EchoHawk and nonprofit leader Agnes Moran. The House seat was previously held by independent Dan Ortiz, who successfully peeled off conservative voters in earlier campaigns but decided not to seek reelection. Bynum has more than half the vote so far. If he can maintain a majority, he could win the race outright.

But, there’s only so much you can know on election night.

Even after results are finalized, because lawmakers don’t always fall along neat partisan lines, it can take weeks or months after the election for majority caucuses in the House and Senate to organize. So while we may know the results of some races, it is difficult to say definitively who will control each chamber.

Full results are available at the Division of Elections’ website.

This is a developing story and will be updated. It was last updated at 11:45 p.m.

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