What we’re learning from early primary results in Alaska House and Senate races

Last updated: 8 a.m. Wednesday:

Results are rolling in for Tuesday’s primary election, the first time in the 2024 cycle that voters have a chance to weigh in on races for the Alaska House and Senate. 

So far, it’s a tight race between Eagle River Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick, who has worked across the aisle, and conservative challenger Jared Goecker. And in the race for an Interior state House seat, Democrat Brandon Putuuqti Kowalski has an early lead in a field that includes four Republicans.

Those are the only two Alaska legislative races that will see candidates eliminated in the primary because they have more than four contenders. The U.S. House race will also get whittled down to four candidates.

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The results “are very encouraging for a bipartisan coalition to continue in the Senate,” Sen. Bill Wielechowski, D-Anchorage, a senior member of the 17-member majority caucus, said in a text message. 

House Majority Leader Dan Saddler, R-Eagle River, said he, too, was encouraged by the results.

“It’s probably premature to make a solid prediction, but I’m feeling confidence with the results we see in the primary,” Saddler said by phone.

Here are some more takeaways from the results. 

(But first, one thing to keep in mind: Absentee ballots will continue to be counted through Aug. 30, and the results will not become official until certified in early September, according to the Division of Elections — so things could change as more ballots are counted.)

A close Senate race in Eagle River

In Senate District L, covering Eagle River, Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick is in a tight race against three conservative challengers and one Democrat. Merrick has come under attack from three of her four challengers, all Republicans, for joining a bipartisan majority caucus. 

Merrick’s chief competition comes from Jared Goecker, who is roughly even with her as of late Tuesday night. They both have roughly 33% of the vote.

Merrick has defended her decision to join the majority, saying she would not have been as effective a legislator had she been relegated to the minority, but Goecker and others cast her decision as a betrayal of conservative voters. 

Democrat Lee Hammermeister is in third, followed by two former Republican House members: Ken McCarty in fourth and Sharon Jackson in fifth.

See the full results here.

Democrat leads in six-way Interior House race

The only other state legislative race that will see candidates eliminated in the primary is for the vast, rural House District 36, covering areas of the Interior from Glennallen to Delta Junction, Tok, Fort Yukon and Ruby. The race features four Republicans, one Democrat and a Libertarian. There’s no incumbent in the race, as Rep. Mike Cronk, R-Tok, withdrew to run for an Interior Senate seat.

Democrat Brandon Putuuqti Kowalski has the lead with about a third of the vote.

Kowalski, a former graduate research assistant who now works as a structural welder, pledged to “work across the aisle to fight for our region” in his official candidate statement. He told voters he supports increasing state education funding for public schools, restoring a defined-benefit retirement system for state workers and expanding the state’s substitute for Social Security known as the Supplemental Benefits System. An Iñupiaq man born in Fairbanks and raised in Kotzebue, Kowalski said he would work to preserve subsistence opportunities and traditional ways of life while elevating tribal voices.

The four Republicans in the race are closely split, each with between 10% and 20% of the vote so far.

Libertarian James Fields is a distant sixth.

Other highlights — and a note of caution

In other races, while no candidates will be eliminated, the primary results could be an early indicator of where voters are leaning ahead of November’s ranked choice general election. But it’s far from a perfect forecast of the race ahead — primaries are typically low-turnout affairs, and candidates who have lagged in the primary race have sometimes come back to beat the field in the general election. Democratic political consultant Jim Lottsfeldt likened the primary results to the 200-meter split in a 400-meter race.

In Senate District H, which includes the Anchorage neighborhoods of Sand Lake and Campbell Lake and residents near Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, the Democratic incumbent Sen. Matt Claman has a substantial lead. Claman, a member of the bipartisan majority caucus, has roughly 60% with all 13 precincts reporting, though roughly 20% of registered voters cast ballots in the race.

Claman led a successful push to stiffen criminal laws during the most recent legislative session and counts public safety, fiscal responsibility and quality education as his top priorities.

Rep. Tom McKay, a Republican who ended his House reelection bid to challenge Claman, is in second place with 21%. McKay had pledged to drop out of the race if he came in third, though fellow Republican Liz Vazquez, who is in third with roughly 19%, has not made a similar commitment.

In House District 10, including the Oceanview and Klatt areas of Anchorage, the incumbent is trailing by a substantial margin. House Rules Committee Chair Rep. Craig Johnson, a Republican, is running behind former Rep. Chuck Kopp, who has positioned himself as a more moderate Republican. Kopp has 61% of the vote with all precincts reporting, though turnout is at just 16%.

In the race to replace McKay in House District 15, former Republican Sen. Mia Costello leads with roughly 51% of the vote. Democrat Denny Wells has 44%. Wells ran for the seat in 2022 and lost to McKay by just a handful of votes. Turnout is roughly 18%.

Independent Ky Holland has 40% of the vote in the race for House District 9, which includes South Anchorage, Turnagain Arm and Whittier. He’s followed by Republicans Lucy Bauer, Lee Ellis and Brandy Pennington, who each have roughly 20%. The seat is currently held by Rep. Laddie Shaw, who is not running for another term.

Rep. Stanley Wright, a Republican representing North Muldoon, is in a roughly 50-50 race against Democratic challenger Ted Eischeid — but fewer than 8% of registered voters cast ballots in that race.

On the Kenai Peninsula, incumbent Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, R-Nikiski, a member of the bipartisan majority, has a narrow lead over his more conservative challenger, Rep. Ben Carpenter, R-Nikiski. Incumbent Rep. Sarah Vance, R-Homer has a nearly 10-point lead in a four-candidate field for a seat representing the southern Kenai Peninsula. Rep. Justin Ruffridge, R-Soldotna, has a 20-point lead over conservative challenger Ron Gillham.

In Wasilla’s Senate District N race, incumbent Sen. David Wilson, another member of the bipartisan majority caucus, has more than 40% of the vote in a race against two Republican challengers, Robert Yundt and Stephen Wright.

Another bipartisan Senate majority member, Republican Sen. James Kaufman of Anchorage, is trailing Democrat Janice Park in a tight race for District F, representing Far North Bicentennial Park and the Lower Hillside. Park is ahead by roughly 3 percentage points.

In Fairbanks, Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki, another bipartisan majority member, trails Republican challenger Leslie Hajdukovich by a slim margin. In the Downtown Fairbanks House race, incumbent Democratic Rep. Maxine Dibert has a narrow lead over the Republican former Rep. Bart LeBon in a seat Republicans view as a pickup opportunity.

In the Interior Senate district previously held by outgoing Republican Sen. Click Bishop, Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly presiding officer Savannah Fletcher, an independent, is in a tight race with Rep. Mike Cronk, R-Tok.

In a three-person race to represent southern Southeast Alaska’s House District 1, Republican borough assembly member and second-time House candidate Jeremy Bynum is off to a big lead with about 50% of the vote over a pair of independent candidates: Ketchikan assembly colleague Grant EchoHawk and regional nonprofit leader Agnes Moran. They’re vying for a seat representing Ketchikan, Wrangell and Coffman Cove. The seat is currently held by Ketchikan independent Rep. Dan Ortiz, who announced this year he would not run for reelection.

For a full list of results, check the Division of Elections’ website.