Warmer than normal temperatures are expected across Alaska next month. National Weather Service climate science and services manager Rick Thoman says that’s the October outlook from the agency’s Climate Prediction Center.
”All of the state, better than 50 percent chance for significantly warmer for the month as a whole,” Thoman said. “It doesn’t mean every day is going to be warm, but a very strong forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for all of Alaska in October.”
Thoman says the probability is especially high for the state’s Northwestern coastal region.
“Better than 80 percent chance that temperatures will wind up much above normal, and that is the first time ever that the Climate Prediction Center has used probabilities that high anywhere in the United States,” Thoman said.
Thoman says the forecast, and level of confidence, reflect extreme ocean conditions.
”The dramatic loss of sea ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas over the last few years, compared to the historical period,” Thoman said. “Also, sea surface temperatures in the Bering and Chukchi Sea are extremely warm this year, even warmer than last year.”
Thoman also points to another factor in play: the forecast of an El Niño, which historically have made the Interior warmer than normal. In the near term, the forecast is for wet weather to be pushed out the Interior. Weather Service meteorologist Jim Brader says the region is forecasted to transition from clouds and rain to clear skies.
Brader says the clear skies will bring daytime high temperatures in the 50’s with freezing lows overnight.
Dan Bross is a reporter at KUAC in Fairbanks.
