The first snowfall in Anchorage came practically right on schedule. On average, the city has at least a trace of snow by October 16th, four days earlier than the date of this year’s first snow.
Anchorage climatologist Brian Brettschneider keeps track of first snowfalls around the state, along with lots of other climate data. Alaska’s Energy Desk is checking in with him regularly as part of the segment, Ask A Climatologist.
Brettschneider said in Anchorage, the first snow isn’t likely to have staying power.
Interview transcript:
Brian: Typically when we get snows in mid to late Oct., usually they will melt out. We don’t usually get our winter snow pack to set in until Nov. 10th in Anchorage. So only about 40 percent of the time when we have snow set in on these dates in Anchorage will it hold on and last throughout the entire winter. So usually it will melt off, and we’ll have to start over.
Annie: How does the timing of our first snowfall stack up to normal?
Brian: Typically the first snow is on Oct. 16th and this year it was on Oct. 20th. We actually had two tenths of an inch right before midnight on Oct. 20th, so even though most of it was on Oct. 21st, it goes down in the books as being on Oct. 20th. So that’s four days behind schedule.
Annie: Pretty right on.
Brian: It’s pretty close. If you’re within a week, I would consider that to be right on schedule.
Annie: And what about the rest of the state?
Brian: Most of the rest of the state is, on average, pretty typical. Fairbanks was late – they were 19 days late – but Juneau was 19 days early. Places like Bethel, they haven’t had a snow yet, King Salmon, they haven’t had a snow yet, so they’re pretty behind.
Annie: So for those of us in Anchorage who like to ski, should we be excited that this is a sign that this winter will be a snowy one?
Brian: No, you should not be excited because there’s almost no correlation between when the first snow occurs in Anchorage and what the rest of the winter looks like. Two years ago we had our worst, lowest snow winter on record- we had three inches of snow the first week of October. And so everyone was thinking, ‘Oh this is going to be a good snow year,’ and it turned out to be the worst ever. So if you look at the numbers over time, there’s very, very little correlation between when the first snow occurs and what the final total for the season is.
Annie Feidt is the broadcast managing editor at Alaska Public Media. Reach her atafeidt@alaskapublic.org. Read more about Anniehere.
